Locksmith Industry Changes In the Past 30 Years
Overview
The locksmith industry has transformed significantly over the past three decades, evolving from a trade focused on mechanical key cutting and lock installation to a technology-driven field incorporating electronic, smart, and AI-enhanced systems. This shift reflects advancements in security technology, growing consumer demand for convenience and protection, and societal trends like heightened crime concerns and digital integration. While the core mission of securing access remains, locksmiths now manage complex systems like biometric locks and IoT-connected devices, requiring new skills. Industry revenue has fluctuated slightly, with a market size of approximately $2.7–3.8 billion in recent years, showing resilience despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Technological Advancements
Since the 1990s, the locksmith industry has shifted toward electronic and digital solutions, building on earlier innovations like Medeco’s high-security patents from the 1960s and complex automotive locks (e.g., transponder keys). Key developments include:
- Electronic and Keyless Systems: The 1990s–2000s saw the rise of electronic locks using key cards, fobs, and programmed access, reducing reliance on physical keys while addressing hacking risks. By the 2010s, keyless entry via RFID, proximity sensors, and push-button starts became standard in vehicles and buildings.
- Smart Locks and IoT Integration: Since the mid-2010s, smart locks with smartphone apps, Wi-Fi connectivity, and remote monitoring have surged, enabling real-time alerts and integration with smart home ecosystems (e.g., controlling lights or cameras). Biometric systems—using fingerprint, facial, or iris scans—have expanded from commercial to residential use, offering high security but requiring maintenance for issues like sensor dirt.
- AI and Advanced Tech: Recent years have introduced AI for predictive maintenance, anomaly detection (e.g., unusual access attempts), and precise key cutting via software-guided machines. Mobile credentials, using phones as keys via Bluetooth or NFC, provide secure, cloud-based access. Data analytics from locks now logs entries for security insights, with edge analytics and machine learning optimizing risk assessment.
These advancements have expanded locksmith roles to include programming, software troubleshooting, and cybersecurity expertise, making the field more interdisciplinary.
Market and Economic Shifts
The locksmith industry has shown steady but modest growth, with annual increases of about 1% since 2017, reaching $2.7 billion in 2022 despite a 10% dip due to COVID-19 impacts. There are approximately 24,563 businesses in the US, with over 80% reporting profitability and an average net margin of 16%. Demand remains strong for services like rekeying (cheaper than full replacements) and emergency lockouts, with over 16,000 daily incidents in the US.
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2022) | $2.7 billion (US), down 10% from 2021 but up 1% annually since 2017. |
| Businesses | ~24,563 in the US. |
| Employment | 15,240–34,225 workers; higher in urban areas (e.g., 1,000 in NYC metro). |
| Salaries | Average $50,210 (range $30,710–$72,830); higher in cities like NYC ($60,000+). |
| Profitability | Over 80% of companies profitable; 16% average net margin. |
Market trends include a rise in on-demand mobile services using equipped vans and diversification into consulting, sales, and government contracts for stability. Increased focus on high-security needs, such as post-school shooting protections, has also boosted revenue streams.
Workforce and Training Developments
The workforce is aging, with many older locksmiths retiring, leading to business closures or acquisitions. This has created a skills gap, prompting efforts to attract tech-savvy younger professionals through training programs like nine-month accredited courses or apprenticeships (1–4 years in regions like Australia and certain US states). Background checks and certifications are common, with state-specific regulations but no uniform US standards. Locksmiths must now actively market their electronic expertise, as public perception often favors specialized security firms for advanced installations.
Future Outlook
The industry is poised for further digital integration, with AI, blockchain for enhanced security, and advanced smart locks expected to dominate. While core locksmith demand may decline 2% by 2032, related areas like security system installation could grow 2–4%. Emphasis on succession planning, diverse recruitment, and ongoing education will ensure locksmiths remain essential in a tech-centric security landscape.